Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC Capital Markets, one of Canada’s top economists, offers his unique interpretation of economic data for the year ahead.
Similar to early 2021, we are surrounded by uncertainty. However, this time we can make better predictions. Economically speaking, we’ll see a trajectory like last year: negative growth in Q1; spring will get better; and the summer will be great. Two factors are inhibiting the actual vitality of the economy: restriction levels and the fear factor. Currently, managing the pandemic is all about managing hospitalization rates. Unfortunately, Canada has a very low ICU bed per capita rate, which is why we reach capacity so quickly and why the US is outperforming us economically. The fear factor and absenteeism are still quite high but should ease by spring when we expect to see case numbers lower.
For a full summary of Benjamin’s discussion with our members, please contact a member of the OG100 team.